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NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 19:00

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

PPG 1.57 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

HNK Gorica

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-15.9%0-22.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.5%1-110.8%1-25.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.5%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.4%3-16.0%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-14.2%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.7% 51.5% 1.94 +6.1%

Draw 23.8% 29.9% 3.35 -12.2%

Away win 21.5% 27.4% 3.65 -12.9%

Over 2.5 53.5% 52.6% 1.90 +1.7%

Over 3.5 32.3% 30.8% 3.25 +5.0%

BTTS 54.2% 58.8% 1.70 -7.9%

Home O1.5 52.4% 51.3% 1.95 +2.2%

Away O1.5 27.7% 33.3% 3.00 -10.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.2%

H 55% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 10.5%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1.8

HNK Gorica0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NK LOKOMOTIVA ZAGREB · PPG 1.57

HNK GORICA · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.89 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (H) 54.7%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV +6.1%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -12.2%

HNK Gorica (A) 21.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb face HNK Gorica in Croatia - HNL on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NK Lokomotiva Zagreb a 55% chance, the draw 24% and HNK Gorica 22%, so NK Lokomotiva Zagreb are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and 0.9 for HNK Gorica (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.14 for HNK Gorica. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +20.9%. This match finished 3-1.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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