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HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 19:00

HNK Gorica

PPG 1.16 · HOME

UPCOMING

HNK Hajduk Split

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-110.3%0-27.2%0-33.4%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.9%1-112.5%1-28.7%1-34.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.4%2-17.5%2-25.3%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.2%3-13.0%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 25.0% 4.00 +45.2%

Draw 28.0% 29.9% 3.35 -3.7%

Away win 35.7% 54.3% 1.84 -34.3%

Over 2.5 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 32.3% 3.10 -6.6%

BTTS 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Home O1.5 31.7% 31.3% 3.20 +1.4%

Away O1.5 42.6% 52.6% 1.90 -19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.1%

D 28% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 1–2 8.7%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HNK Gorica1.2

HNK Hajduk Split1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HNK GORICA · PPG 1.16

HNK HAJDUK SPLIT · PPG 1.34

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

HNK Gorica (H) 36.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +45.2%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -3.7%

HNK Hajduk Split (A) 35.7%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -34.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

HNK Gorica face HNK Hajduk Split in Croatia - HNL on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HNK Gorica a 36% chance, the draw 28% and HNK Hajduk Split 36%, so HNK Gorica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for HNK Gorica and 1.4 for HNK Hajduk Split (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HNK Gorica are averaging 1.16 points per game versus 1.34 for HNK Hajduk Split. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +31.5%.

HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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