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NK Osijek vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 19:00

NK Osijek

PPG 1.21 · HOME

UPCOMING

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-16.4%0-23.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.2%1-111.2%1-26.2%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.7%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.1%3-15.6%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.6%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 50.5% 1.98 -4.2%

Draw 24.7% 31.3% 3.20 -12.6%

Away win 27.0% 27.0% 3.70 -0.1%

Over 2.5 53.7% 52.6% 1.90 +2.0%

Over 3.5 31.8% 31.3% 3.20 +1.8%

BTTS 54.5% 59.9% 1.67 -9.0%

Home O1.5 49.2% 50.0% 2.00 -1.6%

Away O1.5 34.7% 33.3% 3.00 +4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NK Osijek1.7

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NK OSIJEK · PPG 1.21

NK LOKOMOTIVA ZAGREB · PPG 1.39

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

NK Osijek (H) 48.4%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV -4.2%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.6%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

NK Osijek face NK Lokomotiva Zagreb in Croatia - HNL on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NK Osijek a 48% chance, the draw 25% and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 27%, so NK Osijek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for NK Osijek and 1.1 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NK Osijek are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.39 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +4.1%.

NK Osijek vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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