Today / Croatia - HNL / NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica

NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:30

NK Slaven Belupo

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

HNK Gorica

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-18.2%0-25.1%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.7%1-112.1%1-27.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-18.9%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.5%3-14.4%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.3%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 36.5% 2.74 +16.4%

Draw 23.7% 31.3% 3.20 -14.5%

Away win 33.8% 41.0% 2.44 -17.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 57.1% 1.75 -5.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 35.7% 2.80 -11.5%

BTTS 54.7% 64.5% 1.55 -15.2%

Home O1.5 40.0% 43.5% 2.30 -8.0%

Away O1.5 37.3% 46.5% 2.15 -19.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.7%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 2–0✓ 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NK Slaven Belupo1.5

HNK Gorica1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NK SLAVEN BELUPO · PPG 1.31

HNK GORICA · PPG 0.95

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

NK Slaven Belupo (H) 42.5%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV +16.4%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.5%

HNK Gorica (A) 33.8%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV -17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

NK Slaven Belupo face HNK Gorica in Croatia - HNL on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NK Slaven Belupo a 43% chance, the draw 24% and HNK Gorica 34%, so NK Slaven Belupo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for NK Slaven Belupo and 1.2 for HNK Gorica (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NK Slaven Belupo are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.95 for HNK Gorica. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +2.6%. This match finished 2-0.

NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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