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NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961 Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 6 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

NK Varazdin

PPG 2.20 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

UPCOMING

Istra 1961

PPG 1.03 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a clear edge.

+11.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.4%0-22.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.5%1-19.4%1-25.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.3%3-16.9%3-23.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-16.0%4+-23.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 56.2% 1.78 -4.1%

Draw 21.9% 27.8% 3.60 -12.7%

Away win 24.2% 25.0% 4.00 -1.9%

Over 2.5 63.1% 56.5% 1.77 +11.7%

Over 3.5 40.2% 33.9% 2.95 +18.6%

BTTS 61.5% 59.9% 1.67 +2.7%

Home O1.5 60.2% 55.6% 1.80 +8.4%

Away O1.5 33.2% 32.3% 3.10 +2.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.5%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–2 5.2%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NK Varazdin2.1

Istra 19611.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NK VARAZDIN · PPG 2.20

ISTRA 1961 · PPG 1.03

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.00 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

NK Varazdin (H) 53.9%

ODDS 1.78 · IMPLIED 56.2% EV -4.1%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.7%

Istra 1961 (A) 24.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

NK Varazdin face Istra 1961 in Croatia - HNL on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NK Varazdin a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Istra 1961 24%, so NK Varazdin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for NK Varazdin and 1.1 for Istra 1961 (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NK Varazdin are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.03 for Istra 1961. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +23.2%.

NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961 Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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