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HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 5 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 16:30

HNK Hajduk Split

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-13.9%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.3%1-18.8%1-24.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.3%2-19.8%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.9%3-17.3%3-23.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-16.9%4+-23.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.5% 71.4% 1.40 -19.5%

Draw 21.1% 23.0% 4.35 -4.9%

Away win 21.4% 14.7% 6.80 +27.3%

Over 2.5 63.7% 62.5% 1.60 +1.9%

Over 3.5 40.5% 40.0% 2.50 +1.3%

BTTS 59.4% 57.8% 1.73 +2.8%

Home O1.5 66.3% 69.0% 1.45 -3.9%

Away O1.5 32.5% 25.3% 3.95 +28.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.4%

H 57% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0✓ 9.3%

#4 3–1 7.3%

#5 1–2 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HNK Hajduk Split2.2

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HNK HAJDUK SPLIT · PPG 1.93

NK LOKOMOTIVA ZAGREB · PPG 1.04

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.18 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

HNK Hajduk Split (H) 57.5%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -19.5%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV -4.9%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (A) 21.4%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +27.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

HNK Hajduk Split face NK Lokomotiva Zagreb in Croatia - HNL on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HNK Hajduk Split a 57% chance, the draw 21% and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 21%, so HNK Hajduk Split are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for HNK Hajduk Split and 1.1 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HNK Hajduk Split are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.04 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +28.4%. This match finished 2-0.

HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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