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HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961 Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 19:00

HNK Hajduk Split

PPG 1.90 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Istra 1961

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.9%0-22.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.1%1-19.9%1-25.4%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.1%3-16.6%3-23.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-15.3%4+-22.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.0% 71.4% 1.40 -23.0%

Draw 22.6% 22.5% 4.45 +0.3%

Away win 22.4% 15.2% 6.60 +28.7%

Over 2.5 61.2% 61.7% 1.62 -0.9%

Over 3.5 38.1% 39.2% 2.55 -2.9%

BTTS 59.4% 56.5% 1.77 +5.1%

Home O1.5 55.4% 69.0% 1.45 -19.7%

Away O1.5 35.4% 25.0% 4.00 +41.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.4%

H 55% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HNK Hajduk Split2.0

Istra 19611.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HNK HAJDUK SPLIT · PPG 1.90

ISTRA 1961 · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

HNK Hajduk Split (H) 55.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -23.0%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +0.3%

Istra 1961 (A) 22.4%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV +28.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

HNK Hajduk Split face Istra 1961 in Croatia - HNL on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HNK Hajduk Split a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Istra 1961 22%, so HNK Hajduk Split are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for HNK Hajduk Split and 1.1 for Istra 1961 (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HNK Hajduk Split are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.25 for Istra 1961. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +44.3%. This match finished 2-2.

HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961 Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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