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Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 01:00

Deportivo Pereira

PPG 0.78 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDDW

UPCOMING

Independiente Medellin

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-111.8%0-27.6%0-33.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.1%1-113.0%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.6%2-17.2%2-24.6%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.1%3-12.6%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 20.4% 4.90 +73.0%

Draw 27.4% 27.8% 3.60 -0.8%

Away win 37.3% 58.8% 1.70 -36.6%

Over 2.5 50.4% 50.0% 2.00 +0.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.8% 3.60 +2.0%

BTTS 52.9% 51.3% 1.95 +3.1%

Home O1.5 30.9% 25.0% 4.00 +23.6%

Away O1.5 38.1% 54.1% 1.85 -29.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.9%

A 37% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 1–0 10.1%

#4 0–1 11.8%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Pereira1.1

Independiente Medellin1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO PEREIRA · PPG 0.78

INDEPENDIENTE MEDELLIN · PPG 1.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.18, combined xG 2.39 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Pereira (H) 35.3%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +73.0%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -0.8%

Independiente Medellin (A) 37.3%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -36.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Pereira face Independiente Medellin in Colombia - Primera A on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Pereira a 35% chance, the draw 27% and Independiente Medellin 37%, so Independiente Medellin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Deportivo Pereira and 1.3 for Independiente Medellin (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Pereira are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.50 for Independiente Medellin. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +30.0%.

Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera A Predictions