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Internacional de Bogota vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 01:15

Internacional de Bogota

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Deportivo Pasto

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+28.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.2%0-22.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.0%1-110.1%1-25.7%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.7%3-16.4%3-23.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-14.9%4+-22.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 55.6% 1.80 -4.4%

Draw 23.3% 29.9% 3.35 -13.2%

Away win 23.6% 22.0% 4.55 +4.4%

Over 2.5 59.7% 46.5% 2.15 +28.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 23.8% 4.20 +54.1%

BTTS 55.0% 50.0% 2.00 +10.0%

Home O1.5 56.3% 48.8% 2.05 +15.4%

Away O1.5 33.0% 25.0% 4.00 +32.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.0%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 1–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Internacional de Bogota2.0

Deportivo Pasto1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

INTERNACIONAL DE BOGOTA · PPG 1.75

DEPORTIVO PASTO · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Internacional de Bogota (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -4.4%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -13.2%

Deportivo Pasto (A) 23.6%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Internacional de Bogota face Deportivo Pasto in Colombia - Primera A on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Internacional de Bogota a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Deportivo Pasto 24%, so Internacional de Bogota are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Internacional de Bogota and 1.1 for Deportivo Pasto (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Internacional de Bogota are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.17 for Deportivo Pasto. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +54.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Internacional de Bogota vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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