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Fortaleza FC vs Once Caldas Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 01:00

Fortaleza FC

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLD

UPCOMING

Once Caldas

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-19.2%0-25.2%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.2%1-112.7%1-27.2%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.7%2-18.7%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.5%3-14.0%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 31.7% 3.15 +39.2%

Draw 26.9% 30.3% 3.30 -6.7%

Away win 28.9% 45.0% 2.22 -21.5%

Over 2.5 50.4% 47.6% 2.10 +5.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.3% 3.80 +5.4%

BTTS 52.9% 54.6% 1.83 -3.2%

Home O1.5 39.5% 33.9% 2.95 +16.5%

Away O1.5 33.2% 43.5% 2.30 -23.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 11.2%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 0–0 8.2%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fortaleza FC1.4

Once Caldas1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FORTALEZA FC · PPG 1.69

ONCE CALDAS · PPG 1.23

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fortaleza FC (H) 44.2%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +39.2%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.7%

Once Caldas (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fortaleza FC face Once Caldas in Colombia - Primera A on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fortaleza FC a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Once Caldas 29%, so Fortaleza FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Fortaleza FC and 1.1 for Once Caldas (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fortaleza FC are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.23 for Once Caldas. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +30.6%.

Fortaleza FC vs Once Caldas Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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