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Millonarios vs Internacional de Bogota Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 23:15

Millonarios

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Internacional de Bogota

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDDD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-12.8%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.2%1-17.2%1-22.8%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.7%2-19.1%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.9%3-17.7%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-011.5%4+-19.0%4+-23.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.4% 71.4% 1.40 -8.4%

Draw 19.2% 25.0% 4.00 -13.9%

Away win 15.3% 12.5% 8.00 +13.4%

Over 2.5 62.0% 55.6% 1.80 +11.6%

Over 3.5 39.3% 33.3% 3.00 +17.9%

BTTS 52.7% 50.0% 2.00 +5.4%

Home O1.5 65.8% 65.4% 1.53 +0.7%

Away O1.5 23.0% 18.2% 5.50 +15.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.7%

H 65% / xG 2.5-0.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 1–1 7.2%

#3 3–0 9.9%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 1–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Millonarios2.5

Internacional de Bogota0.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MILLONARIOS · PPG 2.00

INTERNACIONAL DE BOGOTA · PPG 0.86

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.76 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.86 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Millonarios (H) 65.4%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -8.4%

Draw 19.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -13.9%

Internacional de Bogota (A) 15.3%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Millonarios face Internacional de Bogota in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Millonarios a 65% chance, the draw 19% and Internacional de Bogota 15%, so Millonarios are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Millonarios and 0.8 for Internacional de Bogota (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Millonarios are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.86 for Internacional de Bogota. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +22.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Millonarios vs Internacional de Bogota Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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