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Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 01:30

Alianza Valledupar

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLL

1 – 5

FULL TIME

Atletico Nacional

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-115.0%0-210.6%0-35.0%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.8%1-112.5%1-28.8%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-03.7%2-15.2%2-23.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.0%3-11.4%3-21.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.8% 25.0% 4.00 -0.5%

Draw 27.8% 32.3% 3.10 -8.3%

Away win 47.5% 52.4% 1.91 -9.3%

Over 2.5 44.8% 45.5% 2.20 -1.4%

Over 3.5 26.6% 25.0% 4.00 +3.8%

BTTS 49.2% 51.3% 1.95 -4.1%

Home O1.5 30.9% 26.7% 3.75 +15.9%

Away O1.5 40.9% 45.5% 2.20 -10.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob49.2%

A 48% / xG 0.8-1.4 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–1 15.0%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 0–2 10.6%

#5 1–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alianza Valledupar0.8

Atletico Nacional1.4

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALIANZA VALLEDUPAR · PPG 1.00

ATLETICO NACIONAL · PPG 1.69

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.58 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Alianza Valledupar (H) 24.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -0.5%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.3%

Atletico Nacional (A) 47.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alianza Valledupar face Atletico Nacional in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alianza Valledupar a 25% chance, the draw 28% and Atletico Nacional 48%, so Atletico Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Alianza Valledupar and 1.4 for Atletico Nacional (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alianza Valledupar are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.69 for Atletico Nacional. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 1-5.

Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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