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Deportivo Pasto vs Deportivo Pereira Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 23:00

Deportivo Pasto

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Deportivo Pereira

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 68.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-15.8%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.0%1-110.2%1-23.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.1%2-19.0%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.3%3-15.3%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-13.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 68.5% 1.46 -21.7%

Draw 24.5% 25.6% 3.90 -2.7%

Away win 21.9% 12.7% 7.90 +43.8%

Over 2.5 44.5% 50.0% 2.00 -11.0%

Over 3.5 26.5% 28.2% 3.55 -3.6%

BTTS 46.6% 46.5% 2.15 +0.2%

Home O1.5 49.9% 59.9% 1.67 -16.7%

Away O1.5 16.9% 18.2% 5.50 -4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.6%

H 54% / xG 1.8-0.6 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 2–0 14.1%

#3 1–1 10.2%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 0–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Pasto1.8

Deportivo Pereira0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 26.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO PASTO · PPG 1.43

DEPORTIVO PEREIRA · PPG 0.38

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Pasto (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.46 · IMPLIED 68.5% EV -21.7%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -2.7%

Deportivo Pereira (A) 21.9%

ODDS 7.90 · IMPLIED 12.7% EV +43.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Pasto face Deportivo Pereira in Colombia - Primera A on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Pasto a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Deportivo Pereira 22%, so Deportivo Pasto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Deportivo Pasto and 0.6 for Deportivo Pereira (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Pasto are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.38 for Deportivo Pereira. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +5.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Deportivo Pasto vs Deportivo Pereira Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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