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Santa Fe vs Millonarios Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 16 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 01:25

Santa Fe

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDD

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Millonarios

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-16.7%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.1%1-111.4%1-25.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.7%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.8%3-15.5%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 29.4% 3.40 +72.4%

Draw 25.8% 33.6% 2.98 -13.9%

Away win 23.5% 43.9% 2.28 -27.9%

Over 2.5 50.6% 41.7% 2.40 +21.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 21.1% 4.75 +21.8%

BTTS 52.3% 50.0% 2.00 +4.6%

Home O1.5 49.9% 29.0% 3.45 +72.2%

Away O1.5 26.1% 39.2% 2.55 -20.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 51% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santa Fe1.7

Millonarios0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTA FE · PPG 1.71

MILLONARIOS · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Santa Fe (H) 50.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +72.4%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -13.9%

Millonarios (A) 23.5%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -27.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santa Fe face Millonarios in Colombia - Primera A on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santa Fe a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Millonarios 24%, so Santa Fe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Santa Fe and 0.9 for Millonarios (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santa Fe are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.00 for Millonarios. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +105.6%. This match finished 3-2.

Santa Fe vs Millonarios Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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