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Cucuta vs Alianza Valledupar Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 01:00

Cucuta

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Alianza Valledupar

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+16.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-16.5%0-22.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.3%1-111.2%1-24.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.6%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.6%3-15.5%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-13.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 45.5% 2.20 +16.6%

Draw 24.4% 31.3% 3.20 -13.2%

Away win 22.7% 29.9% 3.35 -14.4%

Over 2.5 50.5% 42.6% 2.35 +18.7%

Over 3.5 29.0% 22.2% 4.50 +18.3%

BTTS 52.6% 50.0% 2.00 +5.2%

Home O1.5 48.9% 40.8% 2.45 +19.8%

Away O1.5 23.6% 29.4% 3.40 -11.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–0✓ 13.3%

#3 2–0 11.5%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cucuta1.7

Alianza Valledupar0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CUCUTA · PPG 1.30

ALIANZA VALLEDUPAR · PPG 0.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cucuta (H) 53.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +16.6%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.2%

Alianza Valledupar (A) 22.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cucuta face Alianza Valledupar in Colombia - Primera A on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cucuta a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Alianza Valledupar 23%, so Cucuta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Cucuta and 0.8 for Alianza Valledupar (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cucuta are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 0.60 for Alianza Valledupar. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +27.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Cucuta vs Alianza Valledupar Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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