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Junior vs Santa Fe Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 23:30

Junior

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Santa Fe

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-17.7%0-24.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.6%1-112.0%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.4%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.7%3-14.9%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 52.6% 1.90 -13.2%

Draw 24.6% 29.9% 3.35 -10.5%

Away win 29.7% 24.4% 4.10 +13.1%

Over 2.5 52.1% 47.6% 2.10 +9.4%

Over 3.5 30.9% 26.7% 3.75 +15.9%

BTTS 52.7% 52.6% 1.90 +0.1%

Home O1.5 46.2% 48.8% 2.05 -5.3%

Away O1.5 32.6% 28.2% 3.55 +15.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.0%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 1–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Junior1.6

Santa Fe1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

JUNIOR · PPG 1.67

SANTA FE · PPG 1.23

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Junior (H) 45.7%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -13.2%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.5%

Santa Fe (A) 29.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +13.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Junior face Santa Fe in Colombia - Primera A on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Junior a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Santa Fe 30%, so Junior are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Junior and 1.0 for Santa Fe (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Junior are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.23 for Santa Fe. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Junior vs Santa Fe Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera A Predictions