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Independiente Medellin vs Llaneros Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 21:10

Independiente Medellin

PPG 1.54 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Llaneros

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-18.2%0-23.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.5%1-112.1%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-18.9%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.6%3-14.4%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 69.4% 1.44 -27.1%

Draw 26.4% 26.3% 3.80 +0.2%

Away win 23.0% 15.4% 6.50 +29.7%

Over 2.5 44.8% 52.6% 1.90 -14.9%

Over 3.5 26.1% 30.8% 3.25 -9.1%

BTTS 47.5% 51.3% 1.95 -7.4%

Home O1.5 40.1% 61.7% 1.62 -35.0%

Away O1.5 23.0% 20.0% 5.00 +9.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.5%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.5%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 2–0 11.4%

#4 0–0 10.5%

#5 2–1✓ 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente Medellin1.5

Llaneros0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.1%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE MEDELLIN · PPG 1.54

LLANEROS · PPG 1.31

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Independiente Medellin (H) 50.6%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -27.1%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +0.2%

Llaneros (A) 23.0%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +29.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente Medellin face Llaneros in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente Medellin a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Llaneros 23%, so Independiente Medellin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Independiente Medellin and 0.8 for Llaneros (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente Medellin are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.31 for Llaneros. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +32.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Independiente Medellin vs Llaneros Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera A Predictions