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Jaguares vs America de Cali Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 21:25

Jaguares

PPG 1.54 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

America de Cali

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-113.0%0-28.0%0-33.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.7%1-113.2%1-28.1%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.5%2-16.7%2-24.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.8%3-12.3%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.2% 22.7% 4.40 +32.9%

Draw 27.2% 29.9% 3.35 -5.3%

Away win 42.5% 54.3% 1.84 -21.8%

Over 2.5 44.8% 47.6% 2.10 -5.9%

Over 3.5 25.6% 26.3% 3.80 -1.6%

BTTS 49.2% 52.4% 1.91 -6.0%

Home O1.5 30.9% 26.7% 3.75 +15.9%

Away O1.5 36.6% 50.0% 2.00 -26.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.2%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–1 13.0%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jaguares1.0

America de Cali1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

JAGUARES · PPG 1.54

AMERICA DE CALI · PPG 1.36

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.22, combined xG 2.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jaguares (H) 30.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +32.9%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -5.3%

America de Cali (A) 42.5%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jaguares face America de Cali in Colombia - Primera A on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jaguares a 30% chance, the draw 27% and America de Cali 43%, so America de Cali are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Jaguares and 1.2 for America de Cali (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jaguares are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.36 for America de Cali. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Jaguares vs America de Cali Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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