Today / Colombia - Primera A / Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Cali

Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Cali Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Thursday, August 27, 2026, 01:30

Atletico Nacional

PPG 2.83 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Deportivo Cali

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-15.0%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.7%1-19.3%1-22.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.5%2-18.6%2-22.4%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.5%3-15.3%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-13.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% 64.9% 1.54 -8.4%

Draw 23.9% 26.3% 3.80 -5.5%

Away win 16.6% 15.6% 6.40 +3.7%

Over 2.5 50.5% 51.3% 1.95 -1.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.0% 3.45 -0.6%

BTTS 47.2% 50.0% 2.00 -5.6%

Home O1.5 56.3% 57.8% 1.73 -2.6%

Away O1.5 15.1% 22.2% 4.50 -19.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 60% / xG 1.8-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.5%

#2 1–0 16.7%

#3 1–1 9.3%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 3–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Nacional1.8

Deportivo Cali0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO NACIONAL · PPG 2.83

DEPORTIVO CALI · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.29 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Nacional (H) 59.5%

ODDS 1.54 · IMPLIED 64.9% EV -8.4%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.5%

Deportivo Cali (A) 16.6%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Nacional face Deportivo Cali in Colombia - Primera A on Thursday, August 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Nacional a 60% chance, the draw 24% and Deportivo Cali 17%, so Atletico Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Atletico Nacional and 0.6 for Deportivo Cali (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Nacional are averaging 2.83 points per game versus 1.00 for Deportivo Cali. This match finished 2-1.

Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Cali Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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