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Deportes Tolima vs Cucuta Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 01:05

Deportes Tolima

PPG 2.06 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Cucuta

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-13.2%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.3%1-17.5%1-22.5%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.5%2-18.9%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.7%3-17.1%3-22.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.2%4+-17.4%4+-22.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.6% 69.9% 1.43 -9.0%

Draw 18.7% 23.3% 4.30 -11.8%

Away win 17.7% 13.9% 7.20 +16.5%

Over 2.5 57.9% 54.6% 1.83 +6.0%

Over 3.5 36.4% 32.3% 3.10 +12.8%

BTTS 49.9% 50.0% 2.00 -0.2%

Home O1.5 66.3% 63.7% 1.57 +4.1%

Away O1.5 18.8% 20.0% 5.00 -3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.9%

H 64% / xG 2.4-0.7 / O2.5 58% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.5%

#2 3–0 10.7%

#3 1–1 7.5%

#4 1–0 11.3%

#5 2–1✓ 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Tolima2.4

Cucuta0.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES TOLIMA · PPG 2.06

CUCUTA · PPG 0.57

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.72 for Home, form 2.06 vs 0.57 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Tolima (H) 63.6%

ODDS 1.43 · IMPLIED 69.9% EV -9.0%

Draw 18.7%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -11.8%

Cucuta (A) 17.7%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV +16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Tolima face Cucuta in Colombia - Primera A on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Tolima a 64% chance, the draw 19% and Cucuta 18%, so Deportes Tolima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Deportes Tolima and 0.7 for Cucuta (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Tolima are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 0.57 for Cucuta. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +17.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Deportes Tolima vs Cucuta Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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