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America de Cali vs Alianza Valledupar Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 9 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 21:00

America de Cali

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWD

UPCOMING

Alianza Valledupar

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 74.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-12.5%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.2%1-16.1%1-21.3%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.1%2-17.3%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.7%3-15.8%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-014.5%4+-16.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.9% 71.9% 1.39 +4.1%

Draw 16.9% 24.4% 4.10 -18.4%

Away win 8.2% 10.5% 9.50 -13.3%

Over 2.5 53.8% 50.0% 2.00 +7.6%

Over 3.5 34.0% 29.0% 3.45 +17.3%

BTTS 42.6% 44.4% 2.25 -4.2%

Home O1.5 66.3% 61.7% 1.62 +7.4%

Away O1.5 11.1% 16.0% 6.25 -18.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob42.6%

H 75% / xG 2.4-0.4 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 17.1%

#2 3–0 13.7%

#3 1–0 14.2%

#4 4–0 8.2%

#5 1–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

America de Cali2.4

Alianza Valledupar0.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AMERICA DE CALI · PPG 2.38

ALIANZA VALLEDUPAR · PPG 0.55

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.97 for Home, form 2.38 vs 0.55 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

America de Cali (H) 74.9%

ODDS 1.39 · IMPLIED 71.9% EV +4.1%

Draw 16.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -18.4%

Alianza Valledupar (A) 8.2%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV -13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

America de Cali face Alianza Valledupar in Colombia - Primera A on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives America de Cali a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Alianza Valledupar 8%, so America de Cali are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for America de Cali and 0.4 for Alianza Valledupar (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, America de Cali are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.55 for Alianza Valledupar. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +24.1%.

America de Cali vs Alianza Valledupar Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera A Predictions