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Llaneros vs Millonarios Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Thursday, August 27, 2026, 23:10

Llaneros

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Millonarios

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-19.8%0-24.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.0%1-112.8%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-18.4%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.3%3-13.7%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 26.3% 3.80 +74.0%

Draw 27.4% 31.7% 3.15 -8.2%

Away win 26.8% 48.5% 2.06 -26.9%

Over 2.5 44.8% 44.4% 2.25 +0.8%

Over 3.5 25.6% 23.8% 4.20 +4.5%

BTTS 48.7% 51.3% 1.95 -5.0%

Home O1.5 37.2% 28.2% 3.55 +32.1%

Away O1.5 24.1% 43.5% 2.30 -26.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.7%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.0%

#2 1–1 12.8%

#3 0–0 11.4%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 0–1 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Llaneros1.3

Millonarios0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LLANEROS · PPG 1.45

MILLONARIOS · PPG 0.82

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.46, combined xG 2.17 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Llaneros (H) 45.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +74.0%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -8.2%

Millonarios (A) 26.8%

ODDS 2.06 · IMPLIED 48.5% EV -26.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Llaneros face Millonarios in Colombia - Primera A on Thursday, August 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Llaneros a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Millonarios 27%, so Llaneros are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Llaneros and 0.9 for Millonarios (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Llaneros are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 0.82 for Millonarios. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +34.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Llaneros vs Millonarios Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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