Leagues / AUSTRALIA / NPL New South Wales

NPL New South Wales

AUSTRALIA · 163 MATCHES TRACKED · 18 APR 2026 – 2 SEPT 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

Upcoming NPL New South Wales predictions

2 FIXTURES WITH ODDS · MODEL PICK, PROBABILITY AND EV PER MATCH

DateMatchPickProbOddsEV

2 SEPT09:30 Sutherland Sharks vs Manly United BTTS 57% 1.65 -5%2 SEPT09:30 Marconi Stallions vs NWS Spirit Home 53% 1.80 -5%

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 159 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

45.9%

1X2

73/159

52.8%

O/U 2.5

84/159

52.2%

BTTS

83/159

40.3%

Exact score

64/159

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

52.8%

Hit rate

19/36

1.72

Avg odds

-11.0%

ROI

-4.0u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

OVER 2.5 · N=18 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.60 · -19.4% ROI

HOME WIN · N=9 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.93 · +20.0% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=5 60.0% HIT · AVG 1.80 · +4.0% ROI

HOME O1.5 · N=3 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.77 · -100.0% ROI

BTTS · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.53 · +53.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

20%

Hit

-61.0%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

60%

Hit

-15.6%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

63%

Hit

+9.0%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

43%

Hit

-26.4%

ROI

Match log

159 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

August 2026 // 15 PICKS · 7 HIT · 8 MISS

30 AUG Rockdale City Suns vs UNSW Over 2.5 -12% 2–0 MISS 30 AUG Marconi Stallions vs NWS Spirit Home -20% 1–1 MISS 30 AUG Sydney United vs St. George Saints Home -31% 6–0 HIT 30 AUG APIA Leichhardt Tigers vs St George City FA HO1.5 4–2 HIT 30 AUG Blacktown City vs Western Sydney Wanderers U23 Over 2.5 -14% 1–3 HIT 30 AUG Wollongong Wolves vs Manly United BTTS -16% 0–4 MISS 30 AUG Sutherland Sharks vs SD Raiders BTTS -11% 1–2 HIT 30 AUG Sydney Olympic vs Sydney FC U23 BTTS -10% 1–1 HIT 23 AUG Sydney United vs APIA Leichhardt Tigers BTTS -14% 0–0 MISS 23 AUG Sydney Olympic vs Marconi Stallions Over 2.5 -0% 0–1 MISS 23 AUG Wollongong Wolves vs Western Sydney Wanderers U23 Over 2.5 -6% 3–0 HIT 22 AUG Sutherland Sharks vs St George City FA Home +8% 2–1 HIT 22 AUG UNSW vs Manly United BTTS -14% 0–2 MISS 22 AUG NWS Spirit vs SD Raiders Over 2.5 +4% 1–0 MISS 22 AUG St. George Saints vs Blacktown City BTTS -10% 1–0 MISS