Today / Australia - NPL New South Wales / Sutherland Sharks vs St George City FA

Sutherland Sharks vs St George City FA Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 29 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 06:00

Sutherland Sharks

PPG 1.54 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

St George City FA

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-16.8%0-23.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.9%1-111.4%1-25.1%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.6%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.1%3-15.4%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.4% 46.5% 2.15 +8.4%

Draw 24.8% 29.9% 3.35 -10.2%

Away win 24.8% 33.3% 3.00 -15.4%

Over 2.5 50.2% 55.6% 1.80 -9.6%

Over 3.5 28.4% 33.3% 3.00 -8.9%

BTTS 50.0% 60.6% 1.65 -17.5%

Home O1.5 48.8% 48.8% 2.05 +0.0%

Away O1.5 22.8% 39.2% 2.55 -25.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 159 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.0%

H 50% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 2–0 10.9%

#4 2–1✓ 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sutherland Sharks1.7

St George City FA0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SUTHERLAND SHARKS · PPG 1.54

ST GEORGE CITY FA · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sutherland Sharks (H) 50.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +8.4%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.2%

St George City FA (A) 24.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sutherland Sharks face St George City FA in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sutherland Sharks a 50% chance, the draw 25% and St George City FA 25%, so Sutherland Sharks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Sutherland Sharks and 0.9 for St George City FA (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sutherland Sharks are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.00 for St George City FA. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +21.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Sutherland Sharks vs St George City FA Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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