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UNSW vs Manly United Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 29 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 07:15

UNSW

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Manly United

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-17.7%0-24.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.6%1-112.0%1-26.7%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.3%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.3%3-14.9%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 39.2% 2.55 +18.3%

Draw 24.5% 28.2% 3.55 -7.8%

Away win 29.1% 42.6% 2.35 -19.0%

Over 2.5 53.9% 57.8% 1.73 -6.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 35.1% 2.85 -9.9%

BTTS 54.7% 63.7% 1.57 -14.1%

Home O1.5 45.7% 45.5% 2.20 +0.5%

Away O1.5 35.6% 47.6% 2.10 -25.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 159 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 8.3%

#5 1–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UNSW1.6

Manly United1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UNSW · PPG 1.79

MANLY UNITED · PPG 0.77

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

UNSW (H) 46.4%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +18.3%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.8%

Manly United (A) 29.1%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

UNSW face Manly United in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UNSW a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Manly United 29%, so UNSW are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for UNSW and 1.1 for Manly United (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UNSW are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 0.77 for Manly United. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 0-2.

UNSW vs Manly United Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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