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Marconi Stallions vs NWS Spirit Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 05:00

Marconi Stallions

PPG 2.29 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

NWS Spirit

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-16.7%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.8%1-110.9%1-23.5%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-18.8%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.3%3-14.7%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-12.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 65.4% 1.53 -19.8%

Draw 24.1% 25.6% 3.90 -3.6%

Away win 23.6% 19.6% 5.10 +12.2%

Over 2.5 50.5% 56.5% 1.77 -10.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.9% 2.95 -9.2%

BTTS 47.2% 55.6% 1.80 -15.0%

Home O1.5 48.9% 61.7% 1.62 -20.8%

Away O1.5 17.8% 27.0% 3.70 -20.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 159 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.6 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.8%

#2 2–0 13.6%

#3 1–1✓ 10.9%

#4 0–0 10.4%

#5 0–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marconi Stallions1.6

NWS Spirit0.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MARCONI STALLIONS · PPG 2.29

NWS SPIRIT · PPG 0.93

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Marconi Stallions (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -19.8%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -3.6%

NWS Spirit (A) 23.6%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marconi Stallions face NWS Spirit in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marconi Stallions a 52% chance, the draw 24% and NWS Spirit 24%, so Marconi Stallions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Marconi Stallions and 0.6 for NWS Spirit (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marconi Stallions are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.93 for NWS Spirit. This match finished 1-1.

Marconi Stallions vs NWS Spirit Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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