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Sydney Olympic vs Marconi Stallions Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 29 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 05:00

Sydney Olympic

PPG 0.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLD

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Marconi Stallions

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-111.2%0-211.9%0-38.4%0-4+7.4%1 1-04.3%1-19.1%1-29.7%1-36.9%1-4+6.0%2 2-01.8%2-13.7%2-24.0%2-32.8%2-4+2.5%3 3-00.5%3-11.0%3-21.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.3% 20.8% 4.80 +7.1%

Draw 21.3% 26.3% 3.80 -11.4%

Away win 55.5% 63.7% 1.57 -12.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 59.9% 1.67 -0.3%

Over 3.5 36.6% 38.2% 2.62 -4.1%

BTTS 53.0% 59.9% 1.67 -11.5%

Home O1.5 30.6% 28.6% 3.50 +7.1%

Away O1.5 57.7% 61.7% 1.62 -6.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 159 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob53.0%

A 56% / xG 0.8-2.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 0–2 11.9%

#3 0–1✓ 11.2%

#4 1–2 9.7%

#5 2–1 3.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sydney Olympic0.8

Marconi Stallions2.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SYDNEY OLYMPIC · PPG 0.62

MARCONI STALLIONS · PPG 1.86

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.31 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Sydney Olympic (H) 23.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +7.1%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.4%

Marconi Stallions (A) 55.5%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sydney Olympic face Marconi Stallions in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sydney Olympic a 23% chance, the draw 21% and Marconi Stallions 56%, so Marconi Stallions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Sydney Olympic and 2.1 for Marconi Stallions (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sydney Olympic are averaging 0.62 points per game versus 1.86 for Marconi Stallions. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Sydney Olympic vs Marconi Stallions Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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