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Sydney United vs APIA Leichhardt Tigers Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 29 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 04:30

Sydney United

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

PPG 1.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-19.2%0-24.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.3%1-112.8%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.5%2-18.8%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.9%3-14.1%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 40.0% 2.50 +12.3%

Draw 26.3% 30.8% 3.25 -8.7%

Away win 28.7% 40.0% 2.50 -17.0%

Over 2.5 50.2% 54.1% 1.85 -7.1%

Over 3.5 28.4% 33.3% 3.00 -8.9%

BTTS 53.0% 61.7% 1.62 -14.1%

Home O1.5 38.2% 40.0% 2.50 -4.5%

Away O1.5 32.4% 40.0% 2.50 -19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 159 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 0–0✓ 8.9%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sydney United1.4

APIA Leichhardt Tigers1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SYDNEY UNITED · PPG 2.38

APIA LEICHHARDT TIGERS · PPG 1.93

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.34, combined xG 2.42 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sydney United (H) 44.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +12.3%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.7%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers (A) 28.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sydney United face APIA Leichhardt Tigers in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sydney United a 45% chance, the draw 26% and APIA Leichhardt Tigers 29%, so Sydney United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sydney United and 1.0 for APIA Leichhardt Tigers (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sydney United are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.93 for APIA Leichhardt Tigers. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Sydney United vs APIA Leichhardt Tigers Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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