Today / Australia - NPL New South Wales / St. George Saints vs Blacktown City

St. George Saints vs Blacktown City Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 29 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 08:30

St. George Saints

PPG 0.79 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Blacktown City

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-19.1%0-27.5%0-34.2%0-4+2.5%1 1-06.8%1-111.3%1-29.4%1-35.2%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.2%2-17.1%2-25.9%2-33.2%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.8%3-12.9%3-22.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 33.9% 2.95 -6.2%

Draw 24.5% 27.0% 3.70 -5.6%

Away win 43.7% 48.8% 2.05 -10.4%

Over 2.5 59.7% 62.5% 1.60 -4.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 40.0% 2.50 -8.5%

BTTS 60.3% 66.7% 1.50 -9.6%

Home O1.5 35.6% 44.4% 2.25 -19.9%

Away O1.5 48.5% 55.6% 1.80 -12.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 160 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob60.3%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 2–1 7.1%

#4 0–2 7.5%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. George Saints1.2

Blacktown City1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. GEORGE SAINTS · PPG 0.79

BLACKTOWN CITY · PPG 1.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

St. George Saints (H) 31.8%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -6.2%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.6%

Blacktown City (A) 43.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. George Saints face Blacktown City in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. George Saints a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Blacktown City 44%, so Blacktown City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for St. George Saints and 1.7 for Blacktown City (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. George Saints are averaging 0.79 points per game versus 1.21 for Blacktown City. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 1-0.

St. George Saints vs Blacktown City Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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