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Rockdale City Suns vs UNSW Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 05:00

Rockdale City Suns

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

UNSW

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-15.4%0-23.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.6%1-110.3%1-26.2%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.2%3-16.2%3-23.7%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.5%4+-22.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 59.9% 1.67 -15.0%

Draw 23.7% 25.0% 4.00 -3.1%

Away win 25.4% 25.0% 4.00 +1.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 67.6% 1.48 -11.6%

Over 3.5 36.7% 45.5% 2.20 -19.3%

BTTS 57.5% 67.6% 1.48 -14.9%

Home O1.5 56.3% 66.7% 1.50 -15.6%

Away O1.5 35.0% 39.2% 2.55 -10.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 159 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob57.5%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0✓ 8.2%

#4 1–2 6.2%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rockdale City Suns1.9

UNSW1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ROCKDALE CITY SUNS · PPG 1.21

UNSW · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rockdale City Suns (H) 50.9%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -15.0%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -3.1%

UNSW (A) 25.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rockdale City Suns face UNSW in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rockdale City Suns a 51% chance, the draw 24% and UNSW 25%, so Rockdale City Suns are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Rockdale City Suns and 1.2 for UNSW (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rockdale City Suns are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 0.50 for UNSW. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +6.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Rockdale City Suns vs UNSW Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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