Today / Australia - NPL New South Wales / Sutherland Sharks vs Manly United

Sutherland Sharks vs Manly United Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Quarter-finals ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 09:30

Sutherland Sharks

PPG 1.53 · HOME

UPCOMING

Manly United

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.9%0-24.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.4%1-111.4%1-27.0%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.4%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.3%3-15.2%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.1%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 40.8% 2.45 +11.2%

Draw 24.5% 30.3% 3.30 -11.5%

Away win 30.1% 40.8% 2.45 -26.3%

Over 2.5 56.9% 58.8% 1.70 -3.3%

Over 3.5 35.1% 33.3% 3.00 +5.3%

BTTS 57.3% 60.6% 1.65 -5.5%

Home O1.5 48.3% 45.5% 2.20 +6.3%

Away O1.5 36.8% 44.4% 2.25 -17.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 159 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob57.3%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–0 7.7%

#5 1–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sutherland Sharks1.6

Manly United1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.9% · O3.5 PROB 35.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SUTHERLAND SHARKS · PPG 1.53

MANLY UNITED · PPG 1.07

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.43 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sutherland Sharks (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +11.2%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.5%

Manly United (A) 30.1%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -26.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sutherland Sharks face Manly United in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sutherland Sharks a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Manly United 30%, so Sutherland Sharks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sutherland Sharks and 1.2 for Manly United (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sutherland Sharks are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.07 for Manly United. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +18.9%.

Sutherland Sharks vs Manly United Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL New South Wales Predictions