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Wollongong Wolves vs Western Sydney Wanderers U23 Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 29 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 05:00

Wollongong Wolves

PPG 1.15 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Western Sydney Wanderers U23

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-17.2%0-26.4%0-33.8%0-4+2.5%1 1-05.7%1-110.3%1-29.1%1-35.4%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.1%2-17.3%2-26.5%2-33.9%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.0%3-13.5%3-23.1%3-31.9%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 50.0% 2.00 -30.2%

Draw 23.2% 28.6% 3.50 -11.3%

Away win 41.9% 34.5% 2.90 +21.5%

Over 2.5 62.6% 66.7% 1.50 -6.1%

Over 3.5 39.4% 47.6% 2.10 -17.3%

BTTS 61.3% 71.4% 1.40 -14.2%

Home O1.5 40.0% 57.8% 1.73 -30.8%

Away O1.5 48.5% 45.5% 2.20 +6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 159 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob61.3%

A 42% / xG 1.4-1.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 7.3%

#3 1–2 9.1%

#4 0–2 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wollongong Wolves1.4

Western Sydney Wanderers U231.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

WOLLONGONG WOLVES · PPG 1.15

WESTERN SYDNEY WANDERERS U23 · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Wollongong Wolves (H) 34.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -30.2%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.3%

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 (A) 41.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wollongong Wolves face Western Sydney Wanderers U23 in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wollongong Wolves a 35% chance, the draw 23% and Western Sydney Wanderers U23 42%, so Western Sydney Wanderers U23 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Wollongong Wolves and 1.8 for Western Sydney Wanderers U23 (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wollongong Wolves are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 1.62 for Western Sydney Wanderers U23. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +47.1%. This match finished 3-0.

Wollongong Wolves vs Western Sydney Wanderers U23 Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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