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Marconi Stallions vs NWS Spirit Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Quarter-finals ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 09:30

Marconi Stallions

PPG 2.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

NWS Spirit

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-16.7%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.3%1-110.9%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.3%2-18.9%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.3%3-14.9%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-12.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 55.6% 1.80 -4.6%

Draw 24.3% 29.0% 3.45 -9.7%

Away win 22.7% 27.8% 3.60 -11.0%

Over 2.5 46.8% 57.8% 1.73 -19.0%

Over 3.5 26.2% 33.3% 3.00 -12.8%

BTTS 48.0% 57.8% 1.73 -17.0%

Home O1.5 48.1% 54.6% 1.83 -12.0%

Away O1.5 18.8% 33.3% 3.00 -26.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 159 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.0%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.3%

#2 2–0 13.3%

#3 1–1 10.9%

#4 0–0 9.9%

#5 0–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marconi Stallions1.6

NWS Spirit0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MARCONI STALLIONS · PPG 2.20

NWS SPIRIT · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Marconi Stallions (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -4.6%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.7%

NWS Spirit (A) 22.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marconi Stallions face NWS Spirit in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marconi Stallions a 53% chance, the draw 24% and NWS Spirit 23%, so Marconi Stallions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Marconi Stallions and 0.7 for NWS Spirit (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marconi Stallions are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.93 for NWS Spirit.

Marconi Stallions vs NWS Spirit Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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