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Wollongong Wolves vs Manly United Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 05:00

Wollongong Wolves

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Manly United

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-19.6%0-25.2%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.9%1-112.9%1-26.9%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.0%2-18.6%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.6%3-13.8%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 40.0% 2.50 +10.8%

Draw 26.6% 29.4% 3.40 -5.7%

Away win 29.0% 40.0% 2.50 -16.5%

Over 2.5 50.5% 57.1% 1.75 -11.6%

Over 3.5 29.9% 35.1% 2.85 -8.9%

BTTS 53.5% 63.7% 1.57 -16.0%

Home O1.5 37.7% 46.5% 2.15 -18.9%

Away O1.5 32.7% 46.5% 2.15 -29.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 159 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.5%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wollongong Wolves1.3

Manly United1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

WOLLONGONG WOLVES · PPG 1.29

MANLY UNITED · PPG 0.93

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.26, combined xG 2.42 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Wollongong Wolves (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +10.8%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.7%

Manly United (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wollongong Wolves face Manly United in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wollongong Wolves a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Manly United 29%, so Wollongong Wolves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Wollongong Wolves and 1.1 for Manly United (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wollongong Wolves are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.93 for Manly United. This match finished 0-4.

Wollongong Wolves vs Manly United Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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