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Sydney United vs St. George Saints Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 05:00

Sydney United

PPG 2.29 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

St. George Saints

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.6% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-15.3%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-017.2%1-19.5%1-22.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.3%2-18.5%2-22.4%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.1%3-15.1%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-13.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.6% 82.0% 1.22 -30.9%

Draw 23.8% 18.5% 5.40 +17.1%

Away win 19.6% 9.1% 11.00 +69.4%

Over 2.5 44.8% 61.7% 1.62 -27.4%

Over 3.5 27.1% 38.5% 2.60 -17.7%

BTTS 45.3% 45.5% 2.20 -0.3%

Home O1.5 48.9% 75.2% 1.33 -35.0%

Away O1.5 15.1% 16.7% 6.00 -5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 159 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.3%

H 57% / xG 1.8-0.6 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.2%

#2 2–0 15.3%

#3 0–0 9.6%

#4 1–1 9.5%

#5 0–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sydney United1.8

St. George Saints0.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SYDNEY UNITED · PPG 2.29

ST. GEORGE SAINTS · PPG 0.93

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sydney United (H) 56.6%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -30.9%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +17.1%

St. George Saints (A) 19.6%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +69.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sydney United face St. George Saints in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sydney United a 57% chance, the draw 24% and St. George Saints 20%, so Sydney United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Sydney United and 0.6 for St. George Saints (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sydney United are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.93 for St. George Saints. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +18.1%. This match finished 6-0.

Sydney United vs St. George Saints Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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