Today / Australia - NPL New South Wales / APIA Leichhardt Tigers vs St George City FA

APIA Leichhardt Tigers vs St George City FA Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 05:00

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

PPG 2.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

St George City FA

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-13.3%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.9%1-17.9%1-23.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.7%2-19.4%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.3%3-17.5%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.7%4+-17.8%4+-23.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.9% 71.4% 1.40 -17.5%

Draw 21.3% 22.7% 4.40 -3.8%

Away win 19.8% 15.6% 6.40 +16.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 69.0% 1.45 -13.4%

Over 3.5 36.7% 46.5% 2.15 -21.1%

BTTS 52.7% 63.7% 1.57 -17.3%

Home O1.5 65.8% 73.5% 1.36 -10.5%

Away O1.5 23.5% 31.3% 3.20 -14.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 159 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.7%

H 59% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 2–0 11.7%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 3–0 9.3%

#5 1–0 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

APIA Leichhardt Tigers2.4

St George City FA0.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

APIA LEICHHARDT TIGERS · PPG 2.64

ST GEORGE CITY FA · PPG 0.93

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.58 for Home, form 2.64 vs 0.93 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

APIA Leichhardt Tigers (H) 58.9%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -17.5%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -3.8%

St George City FA (A) 19.8%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

APIA Leichhardt Tigers face St George City FA in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives APIA Leichhardt Tigers a 59% chance, the draw 21% and St George City FA 20%, so APIA Leichhardt Tigers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for APIA Leichhardt Tigers and 0.8 for St George City FA (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, APIA Leichhardt Tigers are averaging 2.64 points per game versus 0.93 for St George City FA. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 4-2.

APIA Leichhardt Tigers vs St George City FA Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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