Today / Australia - NPL New South Wales / NWS Spirit vs SD Raiders

NWS Spirit vs SD Raiders Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 29 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 07:30

NWS Spirit

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

SD Raiders

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.2% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.3%0-24.3%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.0%1-110.8%1-27.3%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.3%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.9%3-15.3%3-23.6%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.3%4+-22.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 50.0% 2.00 -5.8%

Draw 23.7% 30.3% 3.30 -13.1%

Away win 29.2% 32.3% 3.10 -5.7%

Over 2.5 62.2% 59.9% 1.67 +3.9%

Over 3.5 38.5% 38.2% 2.62 +0.9%

BTTS 61.3% 63.7% 1.57 -3.8%

Home O1.5 48.8% 55.6% 1.80 -12.2%

Away O1.5 41.2% 38.2% 2.62 +7.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 159 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.3%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 1–0✓ 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NWS Spirit1.7

SD Raiders1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NWS SPIRIT · PPG 1.71

SD RAIDERS · PPG 1.31

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

NWS Spirit (H) 47.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -5.8%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.1%

SD Raiders (A) 29.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

NWS Spirit face SD Raiders in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NWS Spirit a 47% chance, the draw 24% and SD Raiders 29%, so NWS Spirit are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for NWS Spirit and 1.4 for SD Raiders (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NWS Spirit are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.31 for SD Raiders. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 1-0.

NWS Spirit vs SD Raiders Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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