Today / Australia - NPL New South Wales / Sydney Olympic vs Sydney FC U23

Sydney Olympic vs Sydney FC U23 Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 05:00

Sydney Olympic

PPG 0.57 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sydney FC U23

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-18.8%0-27.8%0-34.6%0-4+3.0%1 1-06.2%1-110.9%1-29.6%1-35.6%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.8%2-16.7%2-25.9%2-33.5%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.6%3-12.8%3-22.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.7% 26.0% 3.85 +18.2%

Draw 24.5% 26.7% 3.75 -4.9%

Away win 44.8% 57.8% 1.73 -22.5%

Over 2.5 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 41.7% 2.40 -11.9%

BTTS 59.9% 66.7% 1.50 -10.2%

Home O1.5 34.0% 38.5% 2.60 -11.6%

Away O1.5 47.9% 62.5% 1.60 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 159 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob59.9%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.9%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 2–1 6.7%

#4 0–2 7.8%

#5 0–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sydney Olympic1.2

Sydney FC U231.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SYDNEY OLYMPIC · PPG 0.57

SYDNEY FC U23 · PPG 1.14

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.53 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Sydney Olympic (H) 30.7%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +18.2%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.9%

Sydney FC U23 (A) 44.8%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -22.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sydney Olympic face Sydney FC U23 in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sydney Olympic a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Sydney FC U23 45%, so Sydney FC U23 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sydney Olympic and 1.8 for Sydney FC U23 (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sydney Olympic are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 1.14 for Sydney FC U23. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +9.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Sydney Olympic vs Sydney FC U23 Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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