Primera Nacional

ARGENTINA · 305 MATCHES TRACKED · 18 APR 2026 – 4 SEPT 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

Upcoming Primera Nacional predictions

2 FIXTURES WITH ODDS · MODEL PICK, PROBABILITY AND EV PER MATCH

DateMatchPickProbOddsEV

4 SEPT18:30 Defensores De Belgrano vs Racing Cordoba — NO PICK — — —4 SEPT23:00 Ferro Carril Oeste vs Atletico Mitre Home 64% 1.64 +5%

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 294 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

47.6%

1X2

140/294

64.6%

O/U 2.5

190/294

59.5%

BTTS

175/294

63.6%

Exact score

187/294

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

47.3%

Hit rate

26/55

2.06

Avg odds

-5.1%

ROI

-2.8u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

HOME WIN · N=37 51.4% HIT · AVG 2.00 · +1.0% ROI

BTTS · N=13 46.2% HIT · AVG 2.19 · +0.6% ROI

HOME O1.5 · N=3 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.93 · -42.3% ROI

DRAW · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.62 · -100.0% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.40 · -100.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

75%

Hit

+50.0%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

45%

Hit

-9.6%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

47%

Hit

-6.2%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

33%

Hit

-28.3%

ROI

Match log

294 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

September 2026 // 1 PICK · 0 HIT · 1 MISS

2 SEPT Colegiales vs Midland — NO PICK 3–0 —1 SEPT Gimnasia Jujuy vs Agropecuario HO1.5 1–1 MISS

August 2026 // 7 PICKS · 3 HIT · 4 MISS

31 AUG Los Andes vs Acassuso Home -18% 0–0 MISS 30 AUG Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Madryn — NO PICK 1–0 —30 AUG Atletico Mitre vs Central Norte — NO PICK 2–2 —30 AUG Patronato vs Almagro Home -14% 0–1 MISS 30 AUG All Boys vs Chaco For Ever — NO PICK 0–0 —30 AUG Atlanta vs San Martin S.J. Home +14% 0–1 MISS 30 AUG Deportivo Moron vs San Miguel Home 2–1 HIT 30 AUG CA Estudiantes vs Ferro Carril Oeste — NO PICK 2–2 —30 AUG Racing Cordoba vs Colon Santa Fe — NO PICK 1–0 —30 AUG Godoy Cruz vs San Telmo Home -17% 3–0 HIT 30 AUG San Martin Tucuman vs Club Atlético Güemes Home +3% 1–1 MISS 30 AUG Quilmes vs Temperley — NO PICK 0–1 —29 AUG Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Chacarita Juniors Home +5% 1–0 HIT