Primera Nacional

ARGENTINA · 186 MATCHES TRACKED · 18 APR 2026 – 20 JUL 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 177 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

45.8%

1X2

81/177

68.4%

O/U 2.5

121/177

61.0%

BTTS

108/177

66.7%

Exact score

118/177

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

50.0%

Hit rate

14/28

2.02

Avg odds

-1.5%

ROI

-0.4u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

HOME WIN · N=22 45.5% HIT · AVG 1.97 · -13.6% ROI

BTTS · N=5 80.0% HIT · AVG 2.14 · +71.6% ROI

DRAW · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.62 · -100.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

75%

Hit

+50.0%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

50%

Hit

-3.9%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

75%

Hit

+49.5%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

17%

Hit

-64.2%

ROI

Match log

177 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

July 2026 // 5 PICKS · 2 HIT · 3 MISS

17 JUL Deportivo Maipu vs SM Tucuman — NO PICK 0–0 —17 JUL Nueva Chicago vs Agropecuario Home +11% 1–1 MISS 17 JUL Ferro Carril vs Colon Santa Fe — NO PICK 2–0 —17 JUL Ciudad Bolivar vs All Boys Home +21% 0–0 MISS 17 JUL Temperley vs A. Rafaela — NO PICK 2–0 —12 JUL Gimnasia Jujuy vs Chacarita J. Home -1% 1–1 MISS 12 JUL Colon Santa Fe vs Central Norte Home -14% 4–0 HIT 12 JUL Midland vs Quilmes — NO PICK 1–0 —12 JUL Racing Cordoba vs Acassuso Home -21% 3–2 HIT 12 JUL Agropecuario vs Temperley — NO PICK 0–0 —12 JUL Godoy Cruz vs D. de Belgrano — NO PICK 1–0 —12 JUL Gimnasia y Tiro vs Patronato — NO PICK 1–1 —12 JUL SM Tucuman vs Almagro — NO PICK 3–0 —11 JUL Los Andes vs Ciudad Bolivar — NO PICK 3–1 —11 JUL Tristan Suarez vs Nueva Chicago — NO PICK 1–0 —