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Patronato vs Almagro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:30

Patronato

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Almagro

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLDW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-17.8%0-22.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.2%1-111.5%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-18.6%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.3%3-14.2%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 60.6% 1.65 -14.2%

Draw 26.3% 31.3% 3.20 -9.5%

Away win 21.7% 18.2% 5.50 +11.6%

Over 2.5 44.8% 40.8% 2.45 +9.8%

Over 3.5 25.9% 22.2% 4.50 +9.9%

BTTS 47.2% 45.5% 2.20 +3.8%

Home O1.5 40.1% 50.0% 2.00 -19.8%

Away O1.5 18.2% 20.0% 5.00 -5.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 294 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.2%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.2%

#2 2–0 12.8%

#3 0–0 11.6%

#4 1–1 11.5%

#5 0–1✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Patronato1.5

Almagro0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PATRONATO · PPG 1.38

ALMAGRO · PPG 0.77

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Patronato (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -14.2%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.5%

Almagro (A) 21.7%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Patronato face Almagro in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Patronato a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Almagro 22%, so Patronato are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Patronato and 0.7 for Almagro (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Patronato are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.77 for Almagro. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +21.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Patronato vs Almagro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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