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Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Madryn Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:00

Almirante Brown

PPG 2.08 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Deportivo Madryn

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.4%0-110.9%0-23.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.7%1-112.5%1-24.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.7%2-17.1%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.1%3-12.7%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 45.5% 2.20 -0.3%

Draw 27.6% 37.0% 2.70 -15.3%

Away win 27.1% 28.2% 3.55 -2.3%

Over 2.5 42.5% 33.3% 3.00 +27.5%

Over 3.5 20.7% 14.3% 7.00 +26.9%

BTTS 47.2% 42.6% 2.35 +10.9%

Home O1.5 31.1% 34.5% 2.90 -9.8%

Away O1.5 18.2% 23.1% 4.33 -12.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.2%

H 45% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 18.7%

#2 0–0 16.4%

#3 0–1 10.9%

#4 1–1 12.5%

#5 2–0 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almirante Brown1.1

Deportivo Madryn0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMIRANTE BROWN · PPG 2.08

DEPORTIVO MADRYN · PPG 1.38

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.48, combined xG 1.81 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Almirante Brown (H) 45.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -0.3%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -15.3%

Deportivo Madryn (A) 27.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almirante Brown face Deportivo Madryn in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almirante Brown a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Deportivo Madryn 27%, so Almirante Brown are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Almirante Brown and 0.7 for Deportivo Madryn (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almirante Brown are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 1.38 for Deportivo Madryn. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +27.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Madryn Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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