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CA Estudiantes vs Ferro Carril Oeste Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:30

CA Estudiantes

PPG 1.46 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Ferro Carril Oeste

PPG 2.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.1%0-112.7%0-25.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.7%1-113.2%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.6%2-16.8%2-22.7%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.0%3-12.4%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.7% 37.7% 2.65 +2.5%

Draw 32.1% 38.5% 2.60 -16.5%

Away win 29.2% 33.9% 2.95 -8.3%

Over 2.5 37.8% 30.3% 3.30 +24.7%

Over 3.5 20.0% 12.5% 8.00 +36.0%

BTTS 47.2% 40.8% 2.45 +15.6%

Home O1.5 30.9% 28.2% 3.55 +9.7%

Away O1.5 23.3% 25.6% 3.90 -5.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

D 32% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.1%

#2 1–0 16.7%

#3 1–1 13.2%

#4 0–1 12.7%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CA Estudiantes1.0

Ferro Carril Oeste0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CA ESTUDIANTES · PPG 1.46

FERRO CARRIL OESTE · PPG 2.08

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.25, combined xG 1.83 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

CA Estudiantes (H) 38.7%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +2.5%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -16.5%

Ferro Carril Oeste (A) 29.2%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

CA Estudiantes face Ferro Carril Oeste in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CA Estudiantes a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Ferro Carril Oeste 29%, so CA Estudiantes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for CA Estudiantes and 0.8 for Ferro Carril Oeste (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CA Estudiantes are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 2.08 for Ferro Carril Oeste. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +36.0%. This match finished 2-2.

CA Estudiantes vs Ferro Carril Oeste Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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