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Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Chacarita Juniors Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 01:00

Gimnasia Y Tiro

PPG 1.77 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Chacarita Juniors

PPG 0.46 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.1%0-16.7%0-21.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-020.0%1-110.2%1-22.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.2%2-17.7%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-07.7%3-13.9%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-12.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 54.6% 1.83 +4.9%

Draw 26.2% 33.9% 2.95 -13.6%

Away win 16.4% 21.7% 4.60 -14.7%

Over 2.5 43.1% 37.7% 2.65 +14.2%

Over 3.5 20.7% 18.2% 5.50 +8.3%

BTTS 43.7% 44.4% 2.25 -1.7%

Home O1.5 40.1% 43.5% 2.30 -7.8%

Away O1.5 15.1% 21.1% 4.75 -17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob43.7%

H 57% / xG 1.5-0.5 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 20.0%

#2 2–0 15.2%

#3 0–0 13.1%

#4 1–1 10.2%

#5 0–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia Y Tiro1.5

Chacarita Juniors0.5

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA Y TIRO · PPG 1.77

CHACARITA JUNIORS · PPG 0.46

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia Y Tiro (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV +4.9%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -13.6%

Chacarita Juniors (A) 16.4%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia Y Tiro face Chacarita Juniors in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia Y Tiro a 57% chance, the draw 26% and Chacarita Juniors 16%, so Gimnasia Y Tiro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Gimnasia Y Tiro and 0.5 for Chacarita Juniors (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia Y Tiro are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 0.46 for Chacarita Juniors. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Chacarita Juniors Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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