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Ferro Carril Oeste vs Atletico Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 28 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 23:00

Ferro Carril Oeste

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWD

UPCOMING

Atletico Mitre

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-14.8%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.7%1-19.5%1-23.3%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.5%2-19.4%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.0%3-16.2%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-14.8%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.8% 61.0% 1.64 +4.6%

Draw 21.0% 32.3% 3.10 -20.9%

Away win 15.2% 17.2% 5.80 -7.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 37.7% 2.65 +42.6%

Over 3.5 31.7% 18.2% 5.50 +74.4%

BTTS 50.2% 41.7% 2.40 +20.5%

Home O1.5 55.8% 47.6% 2.10 +17.2%

Away O1.5 18.8% 17.4% 5.75 +4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 294 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob50.2%

H 64% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.5%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 1–1 9.5%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 3–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferro Carril Oeste2.0

Atletico Mitre0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FERRO CARRIL OESTE · PPG 1.92

ATLETICO MITRE · PPG 0.77

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.29 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ferro Carril Oeste (H) 63.8%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +4.6%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -20.9%

Atletico Mitre (A) 15.2%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferro Carril Oeste face Atletico Mitre in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferro Carril Oeste a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Atletico Mitre 15%, so Ferro Carril Oeste are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Ferro Carril Oeste and 0.7 for Atletico Mitre (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferro Carril Oeste are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 0.77 for Atletico Mitre. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +74.4%.

Ferro Carril Oeste vs Atletico Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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