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Defensores De Belgrano vs Racing Cordoba Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 28 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:30

Defensores De Belgrano

PPG 1.08 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLL

UPCOMING

Racing Cordoba

PPG 0.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.7%0-112.6%0-23.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.5%1-111.9%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.7%2-15.6%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.1%3-11.8%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.5%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% 46.5% 2.15 -16.6%

Draw 33.8% 35.1% 2.85 -3.7%

Away win 27.4% 28.6% 3.50 -2.5%

Over 2.5 34.6% 35.1% 2.85 -1.4%

Over 3.5 13.6% 15.4% 6.50 -7.0%

BTTS 41.7% 44.4% 2.25 -6.2%

Home O1.5 30.8% 36.4% 2.75 -15.3%

Away O1.5 14.8% 23.8% 4.20 -22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 294 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob41.7%

H 39% / xG 0.9-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.7%

#2 1–0 20.5%

#3 0–1 12.6%

#4 1–1 11.9%

#5 2–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensores De Belgrano0.9

Racing Cordoba0.6

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 13.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSORES DE BELGRANO · PPG 1.08

RACING CORDOBA · PPG 0.54

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.36, combined xG 1.53 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Defensores De Belgrano (H) 38.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -16.6%

Draw 33.8%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -3.7%

Racing Cordoba (A) 27.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensores De Belgrano face Racing Cordoba in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensores De Belgrano a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Racing Cordoba 27%, so Defensores De Belgrano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Defensores De Belgrano and 0.6 for Racing Cordoba (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensores De Belgrano are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 0.54 for Racing Cordoba.

Defensores De Belgrano vs Racing Cordoba Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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