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Atlanta vs San Martin S.J. Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:30

Atlanta

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

San Martin S.J.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDWW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+13.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-17.4%0-22.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.6%1-111.6%1-24.3%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.1%2-19.0%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.3%3-14.7%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-12.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.6% 45.5% 2.20 +13.5%

Draw 24.4% 35.7% 2.80 -19.0%

Away win 24.0% 29.0% 3.45 -10.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 35.7% 2.80 +41.4%

Over 3.5 28.3% 16.7% 6.00 +41.9%

BTTS 47.2% 45.5% 2.20 +3.8%

Home O1.5 46.0% 36.4% 2.75 +26.5%

Away O1.5 18.9% 25.3% 3.95 -15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.2%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.6%

#2 2–0 12.1%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 0–0 10.0%

#5 0–1✓ 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlanta1.6

San Martin S.J.0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLANTA · PPG 2.00

SAN MARTIN S.J. · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atlanta (H) 51.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +13.5%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -19.0%

San Martin S.J. (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlanta face San Martin S.J. in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlanta a 52% chance, the draw 24% and San Martin S.J. 24%, so Atlanta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Atlanta and 0.7 for San Martin S.J. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlanta are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for San Martin S.J.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +41.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Atlanta vs San Martin S.J. Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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