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Los Andes vs Acassuso Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 27 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 22:00

Los Andes

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Acassuso

PPG 0.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.2% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.3%0-17.7%0-21.4%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-025.2%1-19.1%1-21.7%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.9%2-15.4%2-21.0%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.9%3-12.1%3-20.4%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-10.8%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 62.5% 1.60 -18.1%

Draw 27.5% 30.3% 3.30 -5.5%

Away win 21.3% 16.7% 6.00 +16.7%

Over 2.5 34.6% 37.0% 2.70 -6.6%

Over 3.5 17.9% 18.2% 5.50 -0.9%

BTTS 41.7% 40.0% 2.50 +4.3%

Home O1.5 33.0% 50.0% 2.00 -34.0%

Away O1.5 11.1% 14.3% 7.00 -13.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob41.7%

H 51% / xG 1.2-0.4 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 25.2%

#2 0–0✓ 21.3%

#3 2–0 14.9%

#4 0–1 7.7%

#5 1–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Los Andes1.2

Acassuso0.4

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 17.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LOS ANDES · PPG 1.38

ACASSUSO · PPG 0.54

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Los Andes (H) 51.2%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -18.1%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.5%

Acassuso (A) 21.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +16.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Los Andes face Acassuso in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Los Andes a 51% chance, the draw 28% and Acassuso 21%, so Los Andes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Los Andes and 0.4 for Acassuso (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Los Andes are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.54 for Acassuso. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Los Andes vs Acassuso Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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