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San Martin Tucuman vs Club Atlético Güemes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 21:30

San Martin Tucuman

PPG 1.46 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Club Atlético Güemes

PPG 0.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDDD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-14.0%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.7%1-18.3%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.3%2-18.7%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.7%3-16.0%3-21.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.0%4+-15.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.8% 61.7% 1.62 +3.4%

Draw 21.1% 30.8% 3.25 -18.9%

Away win 15.2% 17.2% 5.80 -7.1%

Over 2.5 50.5% 38.5% 2.60 +31.3%

Over 3.5 30.1% 20.0% 5.00 +50.5%

BTTS 47.2% 41.7% 2.40 +13.3%

Home O1.5 59.6% 48.8% 2.05 +22.2%

Away O1.5 15.3% 17.4% 5.75 -7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 64% / xG 2.1-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.3%

#2 1–0 14.7%

#3 1–1✓ 8.3%

#4 3–0 10.7%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Martin Tucuman2.1

Club Atlético Güemes0.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARTIN TUCUMAN · PPG 1.46

CLUB ATLÉTICO GÜEMES · PPG 0.54

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.52 for Home, form 1.46 vs 0.54 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

San Martin Tucuman (H) 63.8%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +3.4%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -18.9%

Club Atlético Güemes (A) 15.2%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Martin Tucuman face Club Atlético Güemes in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Martin Tucuman a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Club Atlético Güemes 15%, so San Martin Tucuman are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for San Martin Tucuman and 0.6 for Club Atlético Güemes (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Martin Tucuman are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 0.54 for Club Atlético Güemes. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +55.7%. This match finished 1-1.

San Martin Tucuman vs Club Atlético Güemes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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