Today / Argentina - Primera Nacional / Deportivo Moron vs San Miguel

Deportivo Moron vs San Miguel Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:30

Deportivo Moron

PPG 2.54 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

San Miguel

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.72 for Home, form 2.54 vs 0.77 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-13.3%0-20.8%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.4%1-17.3%1-21.9%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.1%2-18.2%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.0%3-16.1%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-011.3%4+-15.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.9% — — —

Draw 19.6% — — —

Away win 13.5% — — —

Over 2.5 53.5% — — —

Over 3.5 31.5% — — —

BTTS 47.2% — — —

Home O1.5 65.8% — — —

Away O1.5 15.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 294 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.1%

#2 1–0 14.4%

#3 3–0 12.0%

#4 1–1 7.3%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Moron2.2

San Miguel0.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MORON · PPG 2.54

SAN MIGUEL · PPG 0.77

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.72 for Home, form 2.54 vs 0.77 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Moron (H) 66.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

San Miguel (A) 13.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Moron face San Miguel in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Moron a 67% chance, the draw 20% and San Miguel 14%, so Deportivo Moron are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Deportivo Moron and 0.5 for San Miguel (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Moron are averaging 2.54 points per game versus 0.77 for San Miguel. This match finished 2-1.

Deportivo Moron vs San Miguel Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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