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Gimnasia Jujuy vs Agropecuario Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 27 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 00:00

Gimnasia Jujuy

PPG 2.46 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Agropecuario

PPG 0.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+39.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-13.3%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.5%1-17.8%1-22.6%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.4%2-19.1%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.4%3-17.0%3-22.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.5%4+-17.1%4+-22.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.5% 54.1% 1.85 +13.8%

Draw 18.3% 32.3% 3.10 -26.0%

Away win 20.2% 24.4% 4.10 -10.3%

Over 2.5 59.6% 44.4% 2.25 +34.1%

Over 3.5 36.4% 23.8% 4.20 +52.9%

BTTS 50.1% 51.3% 1.95 -2.3%

Home O1.5 66.3% 47.6% 2.10 +39.2%

Away O1.5 18.8% 26.3% 3.80 -17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob50.1%

H 62% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.4%

#2 3–0 10.4%

#3 1–1✓ 7.8%

#4 1–0 11.5%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia Jujuy2.3

Agropecuario0.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA JUJUY · PPG 2.46

AGROPECUARIO · PPG 0.54

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.65 for Home, form 2.46 vs 0.54 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia Jujuy (H) 61.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +13.8%

Draw 18.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -26.0%

Agropecuario (A) 20.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia Jujuy face Agropecuario in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia Jujuy a 62% chance, the draw 18% and Agropecuario 20%, so Gimnasia Jujuy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Gimnasia Jujuy and 0.7 for Agropecuario (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia Jujuy are averaging 2.46 points per game versus 0.54 for Agropecuario. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +85.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Gimnasia Jujuy vs Agropecuario Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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